Health care mattress: Trump’s health care bill would cost Americans more
The new health care legislation Trump has been promising to sign by Thanksgiving would add $1 trillion to the national debt, and the legislation would leave millions uninsured, according to a new analysis from the National Review Institute.
The NRI analyzed the American Health Care Act (AHCA), the House Republican plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, and found that the legislation’s provisions for expanding Medicaid and cutting subsidies for private health insurance would lead to a 20 percent increase in the national uninsured rate over the next decade, with the number of uninsured Americans expected to increase to an estimated 17 million by 2026.
The report noted that the AHCA would increase the national deficit by $4.2 trillion over the decade.
In addition, the AHC would result in $3.2 billion in additional spending on Medicaid and about $2 billion more for Medicare and other health care programs over the 10-year period, with about $1.6 billion of that additional spending going to Medicaid.
The bill would also increase the cost of medical care by about $200 billion, according the NRI, although the report also noted that it would cost more in the long run.
The AHCA’s Medicaid expansion and its $2.3 trillion increase in Medicare costs, the report noted, are largely offset by its $5 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and other federal programs that help low-income Americans afford health insurance.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the AHAC would cause about 14 million people to lose health insurance by 2027, but that figure is not necessarily higher than the number Trump has pledged to cut from Medicaid and Medicare.
Trump has said he would reduce the number, but the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 estimated that under the AHCC, about 18 million people would lose health coverage.
Trump said the AHACA would cover the uninsured “by making it more difficult for people to qualify for coverage.”
He has also suggested that the ACA would be rolled back to its pre-ACA level by eliminating the Medicaid expansion.
The Congressional Budget Service estimated in February that under both the AHCE and AHCA, the uninsured rate would fall from 22.5 percent in 2019 to 19.7 percent by 2028.
But the NRE analysis found that while the AHCB and AHCE would increase spending on health care over the years, the overall federal deficit would increase by $1,800 per person by 2032.
The National Review report was commissioned by the National Association of Manufacturers, a trade group that represents about 500,000 companies.
The NFIB and other conservative groups, including the Heritage Foundation, have been critical of Trump’s bill and have opposed its Medicaid expansion or its cuts to Medicare.
The plan would make it easier for low-wage workers in states with high unemployment to afford health coverage through their employers and other employers.
The Associated Press reported in December that Trump’s plan would create a $25 billion fund to subsidize premiums for low and moderate income workers.
That would be a major component of Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan’s plan to replace the ACA.
It is not clear how much of the $25-billion fund would go to states and how much to states, the AP reported.
The legislation would also eliminate subsidies for people buying insurance on the individual market, but those subsidies would go up gradually in the first year after the AHCs repeal, and would gradually decline over the following years, as the AH’s tax credits for those making between 400 and 700 percent of the federal poverty level would be phased out.
The White House has argued that the subsidies would make the ACA more affordable, and that repealing the tax credits would help the federal deficit because the tax credit would be paid by insurers rather than by the taxpayer.
But that argument is not backed up by the CBO or the Joint Committee on Taxation.
The CBO estimates that repealing all the tax subsidies would reduce federal revenue by $110 billion over 10 years.
But some of the offsetting tax credits and the cost savings from eliminating them would offset that cost by a larger amount than would be realized, the CBO found.
The ACA would also require insurance companies to cover preventive care, including cancer screenings, and provide more coverage for people with preexisting conditions, but its coverage provisions also could lead to higher premiums for people who have them.
In a statement, the NFIB called the AHCPA “a sweeping attack on our most vulnerable citizens,” adding that its elimination of the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid would lead “to millions more Americans with no insurance coverage.”
The NFIA, which represents the nation’s largest employer, the National Federation of Independent Business, has said that the GOP health care plan is a “massive job killer” that would result “in tens of millions of Americans losing their health insurance.”
The NIA also argued that while Trump’s tax plan would increase taxes for low earners, that would not mean the AHLC would increase costs for most people.
“This bill would give wealthy individuals and corporations more tax breaks